Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş
Model pick: Fenerbahçe (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.05 – 1.16
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fenerbahçe | Beşiktaş |
|---|
| League position | #19 (12 pts) | #13 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.4 |
*Fenerbahçe shown at home, Beşiktaş shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fenerbahçe — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 68% of home games go over 2.5.
Beşiktaş — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fenerbahçe (home) | Beşiktaş (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.0 / 0.8 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Fred (1) | – |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.05 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Fenerbahçe or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Beşiktaş or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 31% |
| Beşiktaş clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fenerbahçe is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Fenerbahçe are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş — FAQ
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model makes Fenerbahçe the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Fenerbahçe 54%, draw 23%, Beşiktaş 23%.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
Expected goals are 2.05 for Fenerbahçe and 1.16 for Beşiktaş — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (10%). Double chance for Fenerbahçe or draw is 79%.