Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Prediction & Preview
Super Lig (Turkey) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SUPER LIG (TURKEY)
Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor
Model pick: Fenerbahçe (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.52 – 0.88
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fenerbahçe | Konyaspor |
|---|
| League position | #19 (12 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.8 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Fenerbahçe shown at home, Konyaspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fenerbahçe — last 5
WDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 69% of home games go over 2.5.
Konyaspor — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fenerbahçe (home) | Konyaspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.0 / 0.8 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Fred (1) | Enis Bardhi (1) |
Super Lig (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Super Lig (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.52 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Fenerbahçe or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Konyaspor or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 44% / 56% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 41% |
| Konyaspor clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fenerbahçe is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Fenerbahçe are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor — FAQ
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model makes Fenerbahçe the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Fenerbahçe 72%, draw 17%, Konyaspor 11%.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
Expected goals are 2.52 for Fenerbahçe and 0.88 for Konyaspor — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Fenerbahçe or draw is 89%.