Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction & Preview
UEFA Champions League (Europe) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais
Model pick: Fenerbahçe (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.05 – 0.18
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fenerbahçe | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|
| League position | #19 (12 pts) | #1 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Fenerbahçe shown at home, Olympique Lyonnais shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fenerbahçe — last 5
WWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 69% of home games go over 2.5.
Olympique Lyonnais — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fenerbahçe (home) | Olympique Lyonnais (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.0 / 0.8 goals per game) | 3-0-1 in 4 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 62% |
UEFA Champions League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 54%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%
Use these UEFA Champions League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.05 vs 0.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Fenerbahçe or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Olympique Lyonnais or draw (X2) | 7% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 94% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 84% |
| Olympique Lyonnais clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fenerbahçe is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Fenerbahçe are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais — FAQ
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Our statistical model makes Fenerbahçe the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Fenerbahçe 61%, draw 20%, Olympique Lyonnais 19%.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Expected goals are 3.05 for Fenerbahçe and 0.18 for Olympique Lyonnais — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe vs Olympique Lyonnais?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (19%). Double chance for Fenerbahçe or draw is 99%.