Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Preview
UEFA Champions League (Europe) · Aug 05, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (EUROPE)
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
Model pick: Fenerbahçe (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.22 – 1.05
Total goals: 1.3
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fenerbahçe | Sturm Graz |
|---|
| League position | #19 (12 pts) | #6 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.8 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.4 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
*Fenerbahçe shown at home, Sturm Graz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fenerbahçe — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 69% of home games go over 2.5.
Sturm Graz — last 5
WWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fenerbahçe (home) | Sturm Graz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.0 / 0.8 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 56% |
UEFA Champions League (Europe) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.94
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 53%
Use these UEFA Champions League (Europe) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.22 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (29%) |
| Double chance — Fenerbahçe or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz or draw (X2) | 92% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 35% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 80% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fenerbahçe is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Fenerbahçe are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz — FAQ
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model makes Fenerbahçe the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Fenerbahçe 49%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz 26%.
Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
Expected goals are 0.22 for Fenerbahçe and 1.05 for Sturm Graz — about 1.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (29%). Double chance for Fenerbahçe or draw is 43%.