Ferencvaros vs Újpest Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Ferencvaros vs Újpest
Model pick: Ferencvaros (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.42 – 0.83
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ferencvaros | Újpest |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #2 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.0 | 1.7 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
*Ferencvaros shown at home, Újpest shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ferencvaros — last 5
LDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Újpest — last 5
WWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ferencvaros (home) | Újpest (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-0 in 4 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.7 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Lenny Joseph (2) | – |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.42 vs 0.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Ferencvaros or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Újpest or draw (X2) | 28% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Ferencvaros clean sheet | 44% |
| Újpest clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ferencvaros is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Ferencvaros are backed at home, where they average 2.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ferencvaros vs Újpest — FAQ
Who will win Ferencvaros vs Újpest?
Our statistical model makes Ferencvaros the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Ferencvaros 67%, draw 19%, Újpest 14%.
Will both teams score in Ferencvaros vs Újpest?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ferencvaros vs Újpest?
Expected goals are 2.42 for Ferencvaros and 0.83 for Újpest — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ferencvaros vs Újpest?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Ferencvaros or draw is 89%.