Ferencvaros vs Vasas Prediction & Preview
NB I (Hungary) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NB I (HUNGARY)
Ferencvaros vs Vasas
Model pick: Ferencvaros (66%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.15 – 0.69
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ferencvaros | Vasas |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 1.0 |
*Ferencvaros shown at home, Vasas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ferencvaros — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 47% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Vasas — last 5
WWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ferencvaros (home) | Vasas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-0 in 4 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 47% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Lenny Joseph (2) | – |
NB I (Hungary) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.81
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 56%
Use these NB I (Hungary) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.15 vs 0.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Ferencvaros or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Vasas or draw (X2) | 29% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Ferencvaros clean sheet | 50% |
| Vasas clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ferencvaros is the model's most likely outcome at
66%. Ferencvaros are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ferencvaros vs Vasas — FAQ
Who will win Ferencvaros vs Vasas?
Our statistical model makes Ferencvaros the most likely result at 66%. Full probabilities: Ferencvaros 66%, draw 21%, Vasas 13%.
Will both teams score in Ferencvaros vs Vasas?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ferencvaros vs Vasas?
Expected goals are 2.15 for Ferencvaros and 0.69 for Vasas — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ferencvaros vs Vasas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Ferencvaros or draw is 89%.