Fernwald vs Pohlheim Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 12, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Fernwald vs Pohlheim
Model pick: Fernwald (86%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.81 – 0.24
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 36%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fernwald | Pohlheim |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 4.0 |
*Fernwald shown at home, Pohlheim shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fernwald — last 5
W
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Pohlheim — last 5
L
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fernwald (home) | Pohlheim (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.29
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 39%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.81 vs 0.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Fernwald or draw (1X) | 98% |
| Double chance — Pohlheim or draw (X2) | 10% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 91% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Fernwald clean sheet | 79% |
| Pohlheim clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fernwald is the model's most likely outcome at
86%. Fernwald are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fernwald vs Pohlheim — FAQ
Who will win Fernwald vs Pohlheim?
Our statistical model makes Fernwald the most likely result at 86%. Full probabilities: Fernwald 86%, draw 12%, Pohlheim 3%.
Will both teams score in Fernwald vs Pohlheim?
The model gives a 36% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fernwald vs Pohlheim?
Expected goals are 2.81 for Fernwald and 0.24 for Pohlheim — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fernwald vs Pohlheim?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (19%). Double chance for Fernwald or draw is 98%.