Ferro vs CA Mitre Prediction & Preview
Argentino B (Argentina) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ARGENTINO B (ARGENTINA)
Ferro vs CA Mitre
Model pick: Ferro (69%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.48 – 0.79
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ferro | CA Mitre |
|---|
| League position | #1 (52 pts) | #11 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Ferro shown at home, CA Mitre shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ferro — last 5
LLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
CA Mitre — last 5
DWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ferro (home) | CA Mitre (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-1-4 in 13 (1.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-7-5 in 13 (0.8 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
Argentino B (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.11
Home wins: 52%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 19%
Over 2.5: 36%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Argentino B (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.48 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Ferro or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — CA Mitre or draw (X2) | 26% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Ferro clean sheet | 45% |
| CA Mitre clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ferro is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Ferro are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ferro vs CA Mitre — FAQ
Who will win Ferro vs CA Mitre?
Our statistical model makes Ferro the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Ferro 69%, draw 18%, CA Mitre 12%.
Will both teams score in Ferro vs CA Mitre?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ferro vs CA Mitre?
Expected goals are 2.48 for Ferro and 0.79 for CA Mitre — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ferro vs CA Mitre?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Ferro or draw is 90%.