Ferroviaria vs AD Confiança Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Ferroviaria vs AD Confiança
Model pick: Ferroviaria (80%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.61 – 0.39
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ferroviaria | AD Confiança |
|---|
| League position | #8 (27 pts) | #20 (13 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Ferroviaria shown at home, AD Confiança shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ferroviaria — last 5
WDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
AD Confiança — last 5
LDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ferroviaria (home) | AD Confiança (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-2 in 9 (1.2 / 0.6 goals per game) | 0-1-7 in 8 (0.4 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 38% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.61 vs 0.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Ferroviaria or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — AD Confiança or draw (X2) | 15% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Ferroviaria clean sheet | 68% |
| AD Confiança clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ferroviaria is the model's most likely outcome at
80%. Ferroviaria are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ferroviaria vs AD Confiança — FAQ
Who will win Ferroviaria vs AD Confiança?
Our statistical model makes Ferroviaria the most likely result at 80%. Full probabilities: Ferroviaria 80%, draw 15%, AD Confiança 6%.
Will both teams score in Ferroviaria vs AD Confiança?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ferroviaria vs AD Confiança?
Expected goals are 2.61 for Ferroviaria and 0.39 for AD Confiança — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ferroviaria vs AD Confiança?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (17%). Double chance for Ferroviaria or draw is 96%.