Figueirense vs Maranhao Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Figueirense vs Maranhao
Model pick: Maranhao (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.49 – 1.14
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Figueirense | Maranhao |
|---|
| League position | #13 (25 pts) | #9 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 0.6 |
*Figueirense shown at home, Maranhao shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Figueirense — last 5
DWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Maranhao — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Figueirense (home) | Maranhao (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-3-3 in 8 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 2-4-3 in 9 (0.4 / 0.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 0% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.49 vs 1.14):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (22%) |
| Double chance — Figueirense or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Maranhao or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 8% / 92% |
| Figueirense clean sheet | 32% |
| Maranhao clean sheet | 61% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Maranhao is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Despite playing away, Maranhao edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Figueirense vs Maranhao — FAQ
Who will win Figueirense vs Maranhao?
Our statistical model makes Maranhao the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Figueirense 18%, draw 33%, Maranhao 49%.
Will both teams score in Figueirense vs Maranhao?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Figueirense vs Maranhao?
Expected goals are 0.49 for Figueirense and 1.14 for Maranhao — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Figueirense vs Maranhao?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (22%). Double chance for Figueirense or draw is 48%.