First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II Prediction & Preview
1-Liga (Austria) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-LIGA (AUSTRIA)
First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II
Model pick: First Vienna (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| First Vienna | Sturm Graz II |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*First Vienna shown at home, Sturm Graz II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
First Vienna — last 5
WWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Sturm Graz II — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | First Vienna (home) | Sturm Graz II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
1-Liga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.98
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these 1-Liga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — First Vienna or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Sturm Graz II or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| First Vienna clean sheet | 39% |
| Sturm Graz II clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
First Vienna is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. First Vienna are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II — FAQ
Who will win First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II?
Our statistical model makes First Vienna the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: First Vienna 52%, draw 25%, Sturm Graz II 23%.
Will both teams score in First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II?
Expected goals are 1.67 for First Vienna and 0.93 for Sturm Graz II — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for First Vienna or draw is 79%.