FK Kozlovice vs Karviná Prediction & Preview
Czechia Cup (Czech_Republic) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECHIA CUP (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
FK Kozlovice vs Karviná
Model pick: Karviná (55%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.28 – 1.12
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 29%
Both teams score: 34%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FK Kozlovice | Karviná |
|---|
| League position | n/a | #1 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.3 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 67% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 1.0 |
*FK Kozlovice shown at home, Karviná shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FK Kozlovice — last 5
LWWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Karviná — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FK Kozlovice (home) | Karviná (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 2-0-1 in 3 (2.3 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 53% |
| Top scorer | – | Denny Samko (2) |
Czechia Cup (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.95
Home wins: 34%
Draws: 0%
Away wins: 66%
Over 2.5: 77%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Czechia Cup (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.28 vs 1.12):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (28%) |
| Double chance — FK Kozlovice or draw (1X) | 42% |
| Double chance — Karviná or draw (X2) | 91% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 41% / 59% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| FK Kozlovice clean sheet | 33% |
| Karviná clean sheet | 76% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Karviná is the model's most likely outcome at
55%. Despite playing away, Karviná edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (71% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FK Kozlovice vs Karviná — FAQ
Who will win FK Kozlovice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model makes Karviná the most likely result at 55%. Full probabilities: FK Kozlovice 12%, draw 34%, Karviná 55%.
Will both teams score in FK Kozlovice vs Karviná?
The model gives a 34% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in FK Kozlovice vs Karviná?
Expected goals are 0.28 for FK Kozlovice and 1.12 for Karviná — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FK Kozlovice vs Karviná?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (28%). Double chance for FK Kozlovice or draw is 42%.