FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk Prediction & Preview
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 4 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk
Model pick: FK Kozlovice (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.38 – 0.77
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FK Kozlovice | Sternberk |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 1.25 / 2.5 |
*FK Kozlovice shown at home, Sternberk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FK Kozlovice — last 5
WLWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Sternberk — last 5
WLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FK Kozlovice (home) | Sternberk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.45
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 70%
BTTS: 69%
Use these Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.38 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — FK Kozlovice or draw (1X) | 90% |
| Double chance — Sternberk or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| FK Kozlovice clean sheet | 46% |
| Sternberk clean sheet | 9% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FK Kozlovice is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. FK Kozlovice are backed at home, where they average 2.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk — FAQ
Who will win FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk?
Our statistical model makes FK Kozlovice the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: FK Kozlovice 68%, draw 19%, Sternberk 13%.
Will both teams score in FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk?
Expected goals are 2.38 for FK Kozlovice and 0.77 for Sternberk — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FK Kozlovice vs Sternberk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for FK Kozlovice or draw is 90%.