FK Shumbrat Saransk vs Penza Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
FK Shumbrat Saransk vs Penza
Model pick: FK Shumbrat Saransk (59%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.74 – 0.65
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FK Shumbrat Saransk | Penza |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*FK Shumbrat Saransk shown at home, Penza shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FK Shumbrat Saransk — last 5
LWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Penza — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FK Shumbrat Saransk (home) | Penza (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.01
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 0.65):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — FK Shumbrat Saransk or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Penza or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| FK Shumbrat Saransk clean sheet | 52% |
| Penza clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FK Shumbrat Saransk is the model's most likely outcome at
59%. FK Shumbrat Saransk are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FK Shumbrat Saransk vs Penza — FAQ
Who will win FK Shumbrat Saransk vs Penza?
Our statistical model makes FK Shumbrat Saransk the most likely result at 59%. Full probabilities: FK Shumbrat Saransk 59%, draw 25%, Penza 16%.
Will both teams score in FK Shumbrat Saransk vs Penza?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in FK Shumbrat Saransk vs Penza?
Expected goals are 1.74 for FK Shumbrat Saransk and 0.65 for Penza — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FK Shumbrat Saransk vs Penza?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for FK Shumbrat Saransk or draw is 87%.