Flamengo vs Mirassol Prediction & Preview
Serie A (Brazil) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE A (BRAZIL)
Flamengo vs Mirassol
Model pick: Flamengo (67%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.9 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flamengo | Mirassol |
|---|
| League position | #2 (45 pts) | #17 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 60% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 2.2 |
*Flamengo shown at home, Mirassol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flamengo — last 5
WDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Mirassol — last 5
LDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flamengo (home) | Mirassol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-1 in 10 (1.9 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-3-7 in 11 (0.9 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 32% |
| Top scorer | Henrique Bruno (4) | – |
Serie A (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie A (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.9 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Flamengo or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Mirassol or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 37% |
| Mirassol clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flamengo is the model's most likely outcome at
67%. Flamengo are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Flamengo vs Mirassol — FAQ
Who will win Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model makes Flamengo the most likely result at 67%. Full probabilities: Flamengo 67%, draw 19%, Mirassol 13%.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
Expected goals are 1.9 for Flamengo and 0.99 for Mirassol — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flamengo vs Mirassol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Flamengo or draw is 81%.