Flamengo vs Vitória Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Flamengo vs Vitória
Model pick: Flamengo (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.1 – 0.73
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flamengo | Vitória |
|---|
| League position | #2 (39 pts) | #13 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
*Flamengo shown at home, Vitória shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flamengo — last 5
WWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Vitória — last 5
WWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flamengo (home) | Vitória (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-1 in 9 (1.9 / 0.9 goals per game) | 0-4-7 in 11 (0.6 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Henrique Bruno (4) | – |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.1 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Flamengo or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Vitória or draw (X2) | 31% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Flamengo clean sheet | 48% |
| Vitória clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flamengo is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Flamengo are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Flamengo vs Vitória — FAQ
Who will win Flamengo vs Vitória?
Our statistical model makes Flamengo the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Flamengo 72%, draw 18%, Vitória 10%.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Vitória?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Flamengo vs Vitória?
Expected goals are 2.1 for Flamengo and 0.73 for Vitória — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flamengo vs Vitória?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Flamengo or draw is 88%.