Flandria vs Excursionistas Prediction & Preview
Prim B Metro (Argentina) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 22:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIM B METRO (ARGENTINA)
Flandria vs Excursionistas
Model pick: Flandria (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.11 – 0.85
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flandria | Excursionistas |
|---|
| League position | #17 (26 pts) | #2 (49 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 54% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Flandria shown at home, Excursionistas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flandria — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 51% of the time; 26% of home games go over 2.5.
Excursionistas — last 5
LLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flandria (home) | Excursionistas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-2-6 in 13 (1.1 / 1.2 goals per game) | 7-3-3 in 13 (1.4 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 51% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 54% |
Prim B Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.07
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Prim B Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.11 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Flandria or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Excursionistas or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Flandria clean sheet | 43% |
| Excursionistas clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flandria is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Flandria are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Flandria vs Excursionistas — FAQ
Who will win Flandria vs Excursionistas?
Our statistical model makes Flandria the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Flandria 40%, draw 31%, Excursionistas 28%.
Will both teams score in Flandria vs Excursionistas?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Flandria vs Excursionistas?
Expected goals are 1.11 for Flandria and 0.85 for Excursionistas — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flandria vs Excursionistas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Flandria or draw is 72%.