Flensburg vs Kilia Kiel Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Flensburg vs Kilia Kiel
Model pick: Flensburg (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.93 – 2.61
Total goals: 5.5
Over 2.5: 80%
Both teams score: 73%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flensburg | Kilia Kiel |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 4.33 / 1.67 | 2.25 / 1.5 |
*Flensburg shown at home, Kilia Kiel shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flensburg — last 5
WWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Kilia Kiel — last 5
DWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flensburg (home) | Kilia Kiel (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.93 vs 2.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (6%) |
| Double chance — Flensburg or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Kilia Kiel or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 97% / 3% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Flensburg clean sheet | 7% |
| Kilia Kiel clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flensburg is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Flensburg are backed at home, where they average 5.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.5, this shapes as an open game (80% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Flensburg vs Kilia Kiel — FAQ
Who will win Flensburg vs Kilia Kiel?
Our statistical model makes Flensburg the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Flensburg 45%, draw 19%, Kilia Kiel 36%.
Will both teams score in Flensburg vs Kilia Kiel?
The model gives a 73% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Flensburg vs Kilia Kiel?
Expected goals are 2.93 for Flensburg and 2.61 for Kilia Kiel — about 5.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flensburg vs Kilia Kiel?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (6%). Double chance for Flensburg or draw is 64%.