Flora vs Kuressaare Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Flora vs Kuressaare
Model pick: Flora (73%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.63 – 0.58
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flora | Kuressaare |
|---|
| League position | #3 (39 pts) | #9 (21 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 60% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 1.4 |
*Flora shown at home, Kuressaare shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flora — last 5
LWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 56% of the time; 66% of home games go over 2.5.
Kuressaare — last 5
LDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flora (home) | Kuressaare (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-0-4 in 10 (2.2 / 0.9 goals per game) | 2-1-8 in 11 (0.9 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 56% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 62% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.63 vs 0.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Flora or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Kuressaare or draw (X2) | 19% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Flora clean sheet | 56% |
| Kuressaare clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flora is the model's most likely outcome at
73%. Flora are backed at home, where they average 2.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Flora vs Kuressaare — FAQ
Who will win Flora vs Kuressaare?
Our statistical model makes Flora the most likely result at 73%. Full probabilities: Flora 73%, draw 17%, Kuressaare 10%.
Will both teams score in Flora vs Kuressaare?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Flora vs Kuressaare?
Expected goals are 2.63 for Flora and 0.58 for Kuressaare — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flora vs Kuressaare?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Flora or draw is 94%.