Flora vs Nõmme Kalju Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Flora vs Nõmme Kalju
Model pick: Flora (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 1.08
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flora | Nõmme Kalju |
|---|
| League position | #3 (42 pts) | #2 (44 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 58% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.6 | 3.4 / 0.8 |
*Flora shown at home, Nõmme Kalju shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flora — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 55% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Nõmme Kalju — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 41% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flora (home) | Nõmme Kalju (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-0-5 in 11 (2.2 / 1.1 goals per game) | 7-2-3 in 12 (1.3 / 0.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 55% | 41% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 54% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 1.08):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Flora or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Nõmme Kalju or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Flora clean sheet | 34% |
| Nõmme Kalju clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flora is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Flora are backed at home, where they average 2.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Flora vs Nõmme Kalju — FAQ
Who will win Flora vs Nõmme Kalju?
Our statistical model makes Flora the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Flora 48%, draw 26%, Nõmme Kalju 26%.
Will both teams score in Flora vs Nõmme Kalju?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Flora vs Nõmme Kalju?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Flora and 1.08 for Nõmme Kalju — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flora vs Nõmme Kalju?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Flora or draw is 75%.