Flora vs Paide Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Flora vs Paide
Model pick: Flora (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.69 – 1.05
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flora | Paide |
|---|
| League position | #3 (42 pts) | #4 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.2 / 1.1 | 1.8 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Flora shown at home, Paide shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flora — last 5
WLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 55% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Paide — last 5
WLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flora (home) | Paide (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-0-5 in 11 (2.2 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-5-3 in 12 (1.8 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 55% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 56% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.69 vs 1.05):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Flora or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Paide or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Flora clean sheet | 35% |
| Paide clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flora is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Flora are backed at home, where they average 2.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Flora vs Paide — FAQ
Who will win Flora vs Paide?
Our statistical model makes Flora the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Flora 45%, draw 26%, Paide 30%.
Will both teams score in Flora vs Paide?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Flora vs Paide?
Expected goals are 1.69 for Flora and 1.05 for Paide — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flora vs Paide?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Flora or draw is 76%.