Flora vs Tammeka Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
Flora vs Tammeka
Model pick: Flora (70%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.97 – 0.71
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Flora | Tammeka |
|---|
| League position | #2 (36 pts) | #6 (26 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.0 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 38% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.6 | 5.0 / 1.6 |
*Flora shown at home, Tammeka shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Flora — last 5
LDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 55% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Tammeka — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Flora (home) | Tammeka (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-0-4 in 9 (2.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.1 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 55% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 63% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.97 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Flora or draw (1X) | 94% |
| Double chance — Tammeka or draw (X2) | 17% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Flora clean sheet | 49% |
| Tammeka clean sheet | 5% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Flora is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Flora are backed at home, where they average 2.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Flora vs Tammeka — FAQ
Who will win Flora vs Tammeka?
Our statistical model makes Flora the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Flora 70%, draw 18%, Tammeka 13%.
Will both teams score in Flora vs Tammeka?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Flora vs Tammeka?
Expected goals are 2.97 for Flora and 0.71 for Tammeka — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Flora vs Tammeka?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (11%). Double chance for Flora or draw is 94%.