Floresta EC vs Ituano Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Floresta EC vs Ituano
Model pick: Draw (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.7 – 0.31
Total goals: 1.0
Over 2.5: 21%
Both teams score: 31%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Floresta EC | Ituano |
|---|
| League position | #11 (27 pts) | #15 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
*Floresta EC shown at home, Ituano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Floresta EC — last 5
DDLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Ituano — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Floresta EC (home) | Ituano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-2 in 9 (1.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-2-6 in 9 (0.8 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 35% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.7 vs 0.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (36%) |
| Double chance — Floresta EC or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Ituano or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 55% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 2% / 98% |
| Floresta EC clean sheet | 73% |
| Ituano clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (79% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Floresta EC vs Ituano — FAQ
Who will win Floresta EC vs Ituano?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Floresta EC 40%, draw 44%, Ituano 17%.
Will both teams score in Floresta EC vs Ituano?
The model gives a 31% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Floresta EC vs Ituano?
Expected goals are 0.7 for Floresta EC and 0.31 for Ituano — about 1.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Floresta EC vs Ituano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (36%). Double chance for Floresta EC or draw is 85%.