Floresta EC vs Maringa FC Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Floresta EC vs Maringa FC
Model pick: Floresta EC (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 0.85
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Floresta EC | Maringa FC |
|---|
| League position | #5 (30 pts) | #4 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Floresta EC shown at home, Maringa FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Floresta EC — last 5
DLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Maringa FC — last 5
DLDWW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Floresta EC (home) | Maringa FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-2 in 10 (1.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-4-2 in 10 (1.6 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.24
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Floresta EC or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Maringa FC or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Floresta EC clean sheet | 43% |
| Maringa FC clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Floresta EC is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Floresta EC are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Floresta EC vs Maringa FC — FAQ
Who will win Floresta EC vs Maringa FC?
Our statistical model makes Floresta EC the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Floresta EC 37%, draw 32%, Maringa FC 30%.
Will both teams score in Floresta EC vs Maringa FC?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Floresta EC vs Maringa FC?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Floresta EC and 0.85 for Maringa FC — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Floresta EC vs Maringa FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (16%). Double chance for Floresta EC or draw is 70%.