Fluminense vs Bahia Prediction & Preview
BrazilA · Jul 30, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BRAZILA
Fluminense vs Bahia
Model pick: Fluminense (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fluminense | Bahia |
|---|
| League position | #4 (32 pts) | #6 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Fluminense shown at home, Bahia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fluminense — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Bahia — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fluminense (home) | Bahia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-1 in 10 (1.8 / 1.1 goals per game) | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.3 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Kennedy John (2) | – |
BrazilA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.38
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 48%
Use these BrazilA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Fluminense or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Bahia or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Fluminense clean sheet | 40% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fluminense is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Fluminense are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fluminense vs Bahia — FAQ
Who will win Fluminense vs Bahia?
Our statistical model makes Fluminense the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Fluminense 46%, draw 28%, Bahia 26%.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fluminense vs Bahia?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Fluminense and 0.92 for Bahia — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fluminense vs Bahia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Fluminense or draw is 76%.