Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi
Model pick: Foolad (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.07 – 0.74
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Foolad | Fajr Sepasi |
|---|
| League position | #8 (6 pts) | #9 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
*Foolad shown at home, Fajr Sepasi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Foolad — last 5
WDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 44% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Fajr Sepasi — last 5
LDDWD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 18% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Foolad (home) | Fajr Sepasi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 44% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 18% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 41%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.07 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Foolad or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Fajr Sepasi or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 54% / 46% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Foolad clean sheet | 48% |
| Fajr Sepasi clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Foolad is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Foolad are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi — FAQ
Who will win Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi?
Our statistical model makes Foolad the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Foolad 42%, draw 32%, Fajr Sepasi 26%.
Will both teams score in Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi?
Expected goals are 1.07 for Foolad and 0.74 for Fajr Sepasi — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Foolad vs Fajr Sepasi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Foolad or draw is 75%.