Foolad vs Shams Azar Qazvin Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Foolad vs Shams Azar Qazvin
Model pick: Foolad (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 0.7
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Foolad | Shams Azar Qazvin |
|---|
| League position | #5 (0 pts) | #17 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Foolad shown at home, Shams Azar Qazvin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Foolad — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Shams Azar Qazvin — last 5
WLDLL
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 27% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Foolad (home) | Shams Azar Qazvin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 27% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 0.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Foolad or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Shams Azar Qazvin or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Foolad clean sheet | 50% |
| Shams Azar Qazvin clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Foolad is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Foolad are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Foolad vs Shams Azar Qazvin — FAQ
Who will win Foolad vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Our statistical model makes Foolad the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Foolad 46%, draw 31%, Shams Azar Qazvin 23%.
Will both teams score in Foolad vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Foolad vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Foolad and 0.7 for Shams Azar Qazvin — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Foolad vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Foolad or draw is 78%.