Forge vs Supra du Quebec Prediction & Preview
Championship (Canada) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (CANADA)
Forge vs Supra du Quebec
Model pick: Supra du Quebec (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.54 – 1.75
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Forge | Supra du Quebec |
|---|
| League position | #1 (41 pts) | #6 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 78% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Forge shown at home, Supra du Quebec shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Forge — last 5
DLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Supra du Quebec — last 5
DDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 83% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Forge (home) | Supra du Quebec (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-1-1 in 9 (1.4 / 0.6 goals per game) | 3-2-4 in 9 (1.8 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 83% |
| Top scorer | Brian Wright (1) | – |
Championship (Canada) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.82
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Championship (Canada) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.54 vs 1.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Forge or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — Supra du Quebec or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| Forge clean sheet | 17% |
| Supra du Quebec clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Supra du Quebec is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Supra du Quebec edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Forge vs Supra du Quebec — FAQ
Who will win Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model makes Supra du Quebec the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Forge 34%, draw 24%, Supra du Quebec 42%.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
Expected goals are 1.54 for Forge and 1.75 for Supra du Quebec — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Forge vs Supra du Quebec?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Forge or draw is 57%.