Fort Wayne vs New York Cosmos Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Fort Wayne vs New York Cosmos
Model pick: Fort Wayne (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.72 – 0.78
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fort Wayne | New York Cosmos |
|---|
| League position | #9 (30 pts) | #16 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
*Fort Wayne shown at home, New York Cosmos shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fort Wayne — last 5
LLLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
New York Cosmos — last 5
LWWDD
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fort Wayne (home) | New York Cosmos (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-2 in 9 (1.6 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-2-9 in 12 (1.1 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 62%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.72 vs 0.78):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Fort Wayne or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — New York Cosmos or draw (X2) | 40% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Fort Wayne clean sheet | 46% |
| New York Cosmos clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fort Wayne is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Fort Wayne are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fort Wayne vs New York Cosmos — FAQ
Who will win Fort Wayne vs New York Cosmos?
Our statistical model makes Fort Wayne the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Fort Wayne 56%, draw 25%, New York Cosmos 19%.
Will both teams score in Fort Wayne vs New York Cosmos?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fort Wayne vs New York Cosmos?
Expected goals are 1.72 for Fort Wayne and 0.78 for New York Cosmos — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fort Wayne vs New York Cosmos?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Fort Wayne or draw is 83%.