Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira
Model pick: Fortaleza CEIF (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.33 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fortaleza CEIF | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|
| League position | #15 (22 pts) | #20 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 3.6 |
*Fortaleza CEIF shown at home, Deportivo Pereira shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fortaleza CEIF — last 5
WLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Pereira — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fortaleza CEIF (home) | Deportivo Pereira (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 40% |
| Top scorer | – | Yuber Quinones (4) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.33 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Fortaleza CEIF or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pereira or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet | 40% |
| Deportivo Pereira clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortaleza CEIF is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Fortaleza CEIF are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira — FAQ
Who will win Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira?
Our statistical model makes Fortaleza CEIF the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Fortaleza CEIF 54%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pereira 20%.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira?
Expected goals are 1.33 for Fortaleza CEIF and 0.92 for Deportivo Pereira — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Fortaleza CEIF or draw is 74%.