Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas
Model pick: Fortaleza CEIF (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fortaleza CEIF | Once Caldas |
|---|
| League position | #15 (22 pts) | #5 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Fortaleza CEIF shown at home, Once Caldas shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fortaleza CEIF — last 5
DLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Once Caldas — last 5
WDLDD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fortaleza CEIF (home) | Once Caldas (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% |
| Top scorer | – | Dayro Moreno (10) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Fortaleza CEIF or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Once Caldas or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 59% / 41% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 14% / 86% |
| Fortaleza CEIF clean sheet | 39% |
| Once Caldas clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortaleza CEIF is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Fortaleza CEIF are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas — FAQ
Who will win Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas?
Our statistical model makes Fortaleza CEIF the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Fortaleza CEIF 36%, draw 31%, Once Caldas 32%.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Fortaleza CEIF and 0.94 for Once Caldas — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fortaleza CEIF vs Once Caldas?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Fortaleza CEIF or draw is 68%.