Fortaleza vs Avaí Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Fortaleza vs Avaí
Model pick: Fortaleza (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.69
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fortaleza | Avaí |
|---|
| League position | #5 (41 pts) | #16 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Fortaleza shown at home, Avaí shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fortaleza — last 5
DDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Avaí — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fortaleza (home) | Avaí (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 8-3-1 in 12 (1.7 / 0.8 goals per game) | 3-2-7 in 12 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 40% |
| Top scorer | – | Thayllon (3) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.47 vs 0.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Fortaleza or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Avaí or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Fortaleza clean sheet | 50% |
| Avaí clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortaleza is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Fortaleza are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fortaleza vs Avaí — FAQ
Who will win Fortaleza vs Avaí?
Our statistical model makes Fortaleza the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Fortaleza 53%, draw 28%, Avaí 20%.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza vs Avaí?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fortaleza vs Avaí?
Expected goals are 1.47 for Fortaleza and 0.69 for Avaí — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fortaleza vs Avaí?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Fortaleza or draw is 83%.