Fortuna Koln vs Alemannia Aachen Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Fortuna Koln vs Alemannia Aachen
Model pick: Alemannia Aachen (74%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.09 – 1.7
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 25%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fortuna Koln | Alemannia Aachen |
|---|
| League position | #15 (0 pts) | #3 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.4 | 2.8 / 1.0 |
*Fortuna Koln shown at home, Alemannia Aachen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fortuna Koln — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Alemannia Aachen — last 5
WDWLW
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 74% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fortuna Koln (home) | Alemannia Aachen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 74% |
| Top scorer | – | Mika Schroers (15) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.09 vs 1.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (28%) |
| Double chance — Fortuna Koln or draw (1X) | 21% |
| Double chance — Alemannia Aachen or draw (X2) | 98% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Fortuna Koln clean sheet | 18% |
| Alemannia Aachen clean sheet | 91% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alemannia Aachen is the model's most likely outcome at
74%. Despite playing away, Alemannia Aachen edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fortuna Koln vs Alemannia Aachen — FAQ
Who will win Fortuna Koln vs Alemannia Aachen?
Our statistical model makes Alemannia Aachen the most likely result at 74%. Full probabilities: Fortuna Koln 3%, draw 23%, Alemannia Aachen 74%.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Koln vs Alemannia Aachen?
The model gives a 25% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fortuna Koln vs Alemannia Aachen?
Expected goals are 0.09 for Fortuna Koln and 1.7 for Alemannia Aachen — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fortuna Koln vs Alemannia Aachen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (28%). Double chance for Fortuna Koln or draw is 21%.