Fortuna Regensburg vs Neumarkt Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 16:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Fortuna Regensburg vs Neumarkt
Model pick: Fortuna Regensburg (82%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.78 – 0.38
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fortuna Regensburg | Neumarkt |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.5 / 1.75 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
*Fortuna Regensburg shown at home, Neumarkt shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fortuna Regensburg — last 5
LLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Neumarkt — last 5
LDLLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fortuna Regensburg (home) | Neumarkt (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 0% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.16
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.78 vs 0.38):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Fortuna Regensburg or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Neumarkt or draw (X2) | 13% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Fortuna Regensburg clean sheet | 68% |
| Neumarkt clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortuna Regensburg is the model's most likely outcome at
82%. Fortuna Regensburg are backed at home, where they average 2.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fortuna Regensburg vs Neumarkt — FAQ
Who will win Fortuna Regensburg vs Neumarkt?
Our statistical model makes Fortuna Regensburg the most likely result at 82%. Full probabilities: Fortuna Regensburg 82%, draw 13%, Neumarkt 5%.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Regensburg vs Neumarkt?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fortuna Regensburg vs Neumarkt?
Expected goals are 2.78 for Fortuna Regensburg and 0.38 for Neumarkt — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fortuna Regensburg vs Neumarkt?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (16%). Double chance for Fortuna Regensburg or draw is 97%.