Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ
Model pick: AZ (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.14 – 1.81
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fortuna Sittard | AZ |
|---|
| League position | #4 (4 pts) | #14 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 1.0 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 3.4 / 0.6 |
*Fortuna Sittard shown at home, AZ shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard — last 5
LLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 64% of home games go over 2.5.
AZ — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 66% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fortuna Sittard (home) | AZ (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 66% |
| Top scorer | – | Troy Parrott (1) |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.14 vs 1.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Fortuna Sittard or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — AZ or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Fortuna Sittard clean sheet | 16% |
| AZ clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
AZ is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, AZ edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fortuna Sittard vs AZ — FAQ
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs AZ?
Our statistical model makes AZ the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 25%, draw 25%, AZ 50%.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs AZ?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fortuna Sittard vs AZ?
Expected goals are 1.14 for Fortuna Sittard and 1.81 for AZ — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fortuna Sittard vs AZ?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Fortuna Sittard or draw is 47%.