Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independ. Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independ.
Model pick: Forward Madison (74%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.89 – 0.81
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Forward Madison | Charlotte Independ. |
|---|
| League position | #3 (39 pts) | #2 (42 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 78% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 1.4 |
*Forward Madison shown at home, Charlotte Independ. shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Forward Madison — last 5
WWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Charlotte Independ. — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Forward Madison (home) | Charlotte Independ. (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-2-0 in 9 (3.0 / 0.8 goals per game) | 3-3-3 in 9 (2.0 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 57%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.89 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (10%) |
| Double chance — Forward Madison or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Charlotte Independ. or draw (X2) | 20% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Forward Madison clean sheet | 44% |
| Charlotte Independ. clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Forward Madison is the model's most likely outcome at
74%. Forward Madison are backed at home, where they average 3.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independ. — FAQ
Who will win Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independ.?
Our statistical model makes Forward Madison the most likely result at 74%. Full probabilities: Forward Madison 74%, draw 16%, Charlotte Independ. 10%.
Will both teams score in Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independ.?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independ.?
Expected goals are 2.89 for Forward Madison and 0.81 for Charlotte Independ. — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Forward Madison vs Charlotte Independ.?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (10%). Double chance for Forward Madison or draw is 92%.