Forward Madison vs One Knoxville Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 03, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
Forward Madison vs One Knoxville
Model pick: Forward Madison (69%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.26 – 0.66
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Forward Madison | One Knoxville |
|---|
| League position | #3 (40 pts) | #4 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.8 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 70% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Forward Madison shown at home, One Knoxville shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Forward Madison — last 5
WLDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
One Knoxville — last 5
LWDDD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Forward Madison (home) | One Knoxville (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-3-0 in 10 (2.8 / 0.8 goals per game) | 5-3-2 in 10 (1.8 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 60% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.96
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.26 vs 0.66):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Forward Madison or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — One Knoxville or draw (X2) | 26% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 83% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Forward Madison clean sheet | 52% |
| One Knoxville clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Forward Madison is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Forward Madison are backed at home, where they average 2.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Forward Madison vs One Knoxville — FAQ
Who will win Forward Madison vs One Knoxville?
Our statistical model makes Forward Madison the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Forward Madison 69%, draw 20%, One Knoxville 12%.
Will both teams score in Forward Madison vs One Knoxville?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Forward Madison vs One Knoxville?
Expected goals are 2.26 for Forward Madison and 0.66 for One Knoxville — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Forward Madison vs One Knoxville?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for Forward Madison or draw is 91%.