Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City
Model pick: Dalian K'un City (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 1.8
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Foshan Nanshi | Dalian K'un City |
|---|
| League position | #16 (11 pts) | #8 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 2.2 | 1.0 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.8 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
*Foshan Nanshi shown at home, Dalian K'un City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Foshan Nanshi — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Dalian K'un City — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Foshan Nanshi (home) | Dalian K'un City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-9 in 11 (0.7 / 2.2 goals per game) | 2-0-7 in 9 (1.0 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 1.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Foshan Nanshi or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Dalian K'un City or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Foshan Nanshi clean sheet | 17% |
| Dalian K'un City clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dalian K'un City is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Dalian K'un City edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City — FAQ
Who will win Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City?
Our statistical model makes Dalian K'un City the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 25%, draw 25%, Dalian K'un City 50%.
Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Foshan Nanshi and 1.8 for Dalian K'un City — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Foshan Nanshi vs Dalian K'un City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Foshan Nanshi or draw is 47%.