Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors Prediction & Preview
League One (China) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LEAGUE ONE (CHINA)
Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors
Model pick: Shenzhen Juniors (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.59 – 1.3
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Foshan Nanshi | Shenzhen Juniors |
|---|
| League position | #16 (11 pts) | #2 (36 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 2.2 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.8 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Foshan Nanshi shown at home, Shenzhen Juniors shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Foshan Nanshi — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Shenzhen Juniors — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Foshan Nanshi (home) | Shenzhen Juniors (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-8 in 10 (0.7 / 2.2 goals per game) | 5-2-3 in 10 (1.9 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
League One (China) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.0
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 61%
Use these League One (China) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.59 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (20%) |
| Double chance — Foshan Nanshi or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Shenzhen Juniors or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Foshan Nanshi clean sheet | 27% |
| Shenzhen Juniors clean sheet | 55% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Shenzhen Juniors is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Shenzhen Juniors edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors — FAQ
Who will win Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors?
Our statistical model makes Shenzhen Juniors the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Foshan Nanshi 19%, draw 30%, Shenzhen Juniors 51%.
Will both teams score in Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors?
Expected goals are 0.59 for Foshan Nanshi and 1.3 for Shenzhen Juniors — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Foshan Nanshi vs Shenzhen Juniors?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (20%). Double chance for Foshan Nanshi or draw is 46%.