Fram vs Stjarnan Prediction & Preview
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
URVALSDEILD (ICELAND)
Fram vs Stjarnan
Model pick: Fram (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.76 – 1.61
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 69%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fram | Stjarnan |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.8 | 1.4 / 2.0 |
*Fram shown at home, Stjarnan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fram — last 5
WWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 65% of home games go over 2.5.
Stjarnan — last 5
WLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fram (home) | Stjarnan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 63% |
Urvalsdeild (Iceland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.21
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 61%
Use these Urvalsdeild (Iceland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.76 vs 1.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Fram or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Stjarnan or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Fram clean sheet | 20% |
| Stjarnan clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fram is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Fram are backed at home, where they average 1.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fram vs Stjarnan — FAQ
Who will win Fram vs Stjarnan?
Our statistical model makes Fram the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Fram 46%, draw 23%, Stjarnan 31%.
Will both teams score in Fram vs Stjarnan?
The model gives a 69% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fram vs Stjarnan?
Expected goals are 1.76 for Fram and 1.61 for Stjarnan — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fram vs Stjarnan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Fram or draw is 64%.