Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 Prediction & Preview
B PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
B PFG (BULGARIA)
Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919
Model pick: Fratria (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.84 – 0.3
Total goals: 1.1
Over 2.5: 24%
Both teams score: 32%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fratria | Chernomorets 1919 |
|---|
| League position | #2 (14 pts) | #5 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 0.6 |
*Fratria shown at home, Chernomorets 1919 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fratria — last 5
WWDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 75% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Chernomorets 1919 — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fratria (home) | Chernomorets 1919 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-1 in 4 (1.0 / 0.2 goals per game) | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 75% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 40% |
B PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.56
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%
Use these B PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.84 vs 0.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (32%) |
| Double chance — Fratria or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Chernomorets 1919 or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 59% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 3% / 97% |
| Fratria clean sheet | 74% |
| Chernomorets 1919 clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fratria is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Fratria are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (76% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919 — FAQ
Who will win Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919?
Our statistical model makes Fratria the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Fratria 45%, draw 40%, Chernomorets 1919 15%.
Will both teams score in Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919?
The model gives a 32% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919?
Expected goals are 0.84 for Fratria and 0.3 for Chernomorets 1919 — about 1.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fratria vs Chernomorets 1919?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (32%). Double chance for Fratria or draw is 87%.