Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt
Model pick: Bodø / Glimt (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.02 – 1.94
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fredrikstad | Bodø / Glimt |
|---|
| League position | #8 (23 pts) | #23 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 62% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.0 | 3.2 / 0.8 |
*Fredrikstad shown at home, Bodø / Glimt shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fredrikstad — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Bodø / Glimt — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fredrikstad (home) | Bodø / Glimt (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-2 in 8 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.8 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 62% |
| Top scorer | – | Jens Hauge (6) |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.02 vs 1.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Fredrikstad or draw (1X) | 41% |
| Double chance — Bodø / Glimt or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Fredrikstad clean sheet | 14% |
| Bodø / Glimt clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Bodø / Glimt is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Despite playing away, Bodø / Glimt edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt — FAQ
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt?
Our statistical model makes Bodø / Glimt the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Fredrikstad 17%, draw 20%, Bodø / Glimt 63%.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt?
Expected goals are 1.02 for Fredrikstad and 1.94 for Bodø / Glimt — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fredrikstad vs Bodø / Glimt?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Fredrikstad or draw is 41%.