Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund Prediction & Preview
Eliteserien (Norway) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 17:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ELITESERIEN (NORWAY)
Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund
Model pick: Fredrikstad (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fredrikstad | Kristiansund |
|---|
| League position | #11 (20 pts) | #14 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Fredrikstad shown at home, Kristiansund shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fredrikstad — last 5
LLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Kristiansund — last 5
LDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fredrikstad (home) | Kristiansund (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (1.4 / 1.1 goals per game) | 1-1-6 in 8 (0.6 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% |
Eliteserien (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.99
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eliteserien (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.6 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Fredrikstad or draw (1X) | 78% |
| Double chance — Kristiansund or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Fredrikstad clean sheet | 40% |
| Kristiansund clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fredrikstad is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Fredrikstad are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund — FAQ
Who will win Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund?
Our statistical model makes Fredrikstad the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Fredrikstad 50%, draw 26%, Kristiansund 24%.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund?
Expected goals are 1.6 for Fredrikstad and 0.92 for Kristiansund — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Fredrikstad or draw is 78%.