Freiburg II vs Kassel Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Freiburg II vs Kassel
Model pick: Kassel (69%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.25 – 1.7
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 35%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Freiburg II | Kassel |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Freiburg II shown at home, Kassel shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Freiburg II — last 5
WLDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Kassel — last 5
LWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Freiburg II (home) | Kassel (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 67% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.25 vs 1.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (24%) |
| Double chance — Freiburg II or draw (1X) | 26% |
| Double chance — Kassel or draw (X2) | 95% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Freiburg II clean sheet | 18% |
| Kassel clean sheet | 78% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kassel is the model's most likely outcome at
69%. Despite playing away, Kassel edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Freiburg II vs Kassel — FAQ
Who will win Freiburg II vs Kassel?
Our statistical model makes Kassel the most likely result at 69%. Full probabilities: Freiburg II 7%, draw 24%, Kassel 69%.
Will both teams score in Freiburg II vs Kassel?
The model gives a 35% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Freiburg II vs Kassel?
Expected goals are 0.25 for Freiburg II and 1.7 for Kassel — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Freiburg II vs Kassel?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (24%). Double chance for Freiburg II or draw is 26%.