Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Germany) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 13:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)
Freiburg vs Werder Bremen
Model pick: Freiburg (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Freiburg | Werder Bremen |
|---|
| League position | #7 (17 pts) | #5 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.2 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.0 | 2.2 / 1.0 |
*Freiburg shown at home, Werder Bremen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Freiburg — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Werder Bremen — last 5
WWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 61% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Freiburg (home) | Werder Bremen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-0 in 4 (1.5 / 0.2 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% |
| Top scorer | Vincenzo Grifo (5) | – |
Bundesliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Bundesliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Freiburg or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Werder Bremen or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Freiburg clean sheet | 33% |
| Werder Bremen clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Freiburg is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Freiburg are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Freiburg vs Werder Bremen — FAQ
Who will win Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model makes Freiburg the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Freiburg 47%, draw 26%, Werder Bremen 27%.
Will both teams score in Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Freiburg and 1.1 for Werder Bremen — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Freiburg or draw is 74%.