Friska Viljor vs Umea FF Prediction & Preview
Division 2 (Sweden) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 2 (SWEDEN)
Friska Viljor vs Umea FF
Model pick: Friska Viljor (63%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.04 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Friska Viljor | Umea FF |
|---|
| League position | #5 (12 pts) | #6 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 17% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.33 / 1.0 | 2.33 / 1.33 |
*Friska Viljor shown at home, Umea FF shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Friska Viljor — last 5
DWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Umea FF — last 5
LWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Friska Viljor (home) | Umea FF (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-2 in 6 (2.3 / 1.8 goals per game) | 2-3-1 in 6 (2.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
Division 2 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Division 2 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.04 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Friska Viljor or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Umea FF or draw (X2) | 32% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Friska Viljor clean sheet | 48% |
| Umea FF clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Friska Viljor is the model's most likely outcome at
63%. Friska Viljor are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Friska Viljor vs Umea FF — FAQ
Who will win Friska Viljor vs Umea FF?
Our statistical model makes Friska Viljor the most likely result at 63%. Full probabilities: Friska Viljor 63%, draw 22%, Umea FF 15%.
Will both teams score in Friska Viljor vs Umea FF?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Friska Viljor vs Umea FF?
Expected goals are 2.04 for Friska Viljor and 0.74 for Umea FF — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Friska Viljor vs Umea FF?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Friska Viljor or draw is 87%.