Frosinone vs Venezia Prediction & Preview
SerieA · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIEA
Frosinone vs Venezia
Model pick: Frosinone (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.5 – 1.1
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Frosinone | Venezia |
|---|
| League position | #9 (3 pts) | #19 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
*Frosinone shown at home, Venezia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Frosinone — last 5
DLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Venezia — last 5
LDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Frosinone (home) | Venezia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 43% |
SerieA — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these SerieA averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.5 vs 1.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Frosinone or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Venezia or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Frosinone clean sheet | 33% |
| Venezia clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Frosinone is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Frosinone are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Frosinone vs Venezia — FAQ
Who will win Frosinone vs Venezia?
Our statistical model makes Frosinone the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Frosinone 38%, draw 28%, Venezia 34%.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Venezia?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Frosinone vs Venezia?
Expected goals are 1.5 for Frosinone and 1.1 for Venezia — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Frosinone vs Venezia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Frosinone or draw is 72%.