FS Jelgava vs Auda Prediction & Preview
Virsliga (Latvia) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VIRSLIGA (LATVIA)
FS Jelgava vs Auda
Model pick: Auda (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.81 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FS Jelgava | Auda |
|---|
| League position | #7 (25 pts) | #3 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 58% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*FS Jelgava shown at home, Auda shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FS Jelgava — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Auda — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FS Jelgava (home) | Auda (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-7 in 13 (1.0 / 1.7 goals per game) | 7-3-2 in 12 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 43% |
Virsliga (Latvia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.86
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Virsliga (Latvia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.81 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — FS Jelgava or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Auda or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| FS Jelgava clean sheet | 27% |
| Auda clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Auda is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Auda edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FS Jelgava vs Auda — FAQ
Who will win FS Jelgava vs Auda?
Our statistical model makes Auda the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: FS Jelgava 24%, draw 29%, Auda 46%.
Will both teams score in FS Jelgava vs Auda?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in FS Jelgava vs Auda?
Expected goals are 0.81 for FS Jelgava and 1.32 for Auda — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FS Jelgava vs Auda?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for FS Jelgava or draw is 51%.