Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction & Preview
PL · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
Model pick: Fulham (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 1.22
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fulham | Crystal Palace |
|---|
| League position | #16 (0 pts) | #19 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 3.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
*Fulham shown at home, Crystal Palace shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fulham — last 5
DWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Crystal Palace — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fulham (home) | Crystal Palace (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (2.0 / 3.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 1.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Fulham or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Crystal Palace or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Fulham clean sheet | 30% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fulham is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Fulham are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fulham vs Crystal Palace — FAQ
Who will win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model makes Fulham the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Fulham 40%, draw 28%, Crystal Palace 32%.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Fulham and 1.22 for Crystal Palace — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Fulham or draw is 66%.