Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Swidnik Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Swidnik
Model pick: Avia Swidnik (72%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 3.48
Total goals: 4.8
Over 2.5: 74%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Górnik Łęczna | Avia Swidnik |
|---|
| League position | #4 (0 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 3.0 / 1.75 |
*Górnik Łęczna shown at home, Avia Swidnik shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna — last 5
LLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Avia Swidnik — last 5
WDWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Górnik Łęczna (home) | Avia Swidnik (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 100% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 3.48):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-3 (8%) |
| Double chance — Górnik Łęczna or draw (1X) | 23% |
| Double chance — Avia Swidnik or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Górnik Łęczna clean sheet | 3% |
| Avia Swidnik clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Avia Swidnik is the model's most likely outcome at
72%. Despite playing away, Avia Swidnik edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.8, this shapes as an open game (74% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Swidnik — FAQ
Who will win Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Swidnik?
Our statistical model makes Avia Swidnik the most likely result at 72%. Full probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 14%, draw 15%, Avia Swidnik 72%.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Swidnik?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Swidnik?
Expected goals are 1.36 for Górnik Łęczna and 3.48 for Avia Swidnik — about 4.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Górnik Łęczna vs Avia Swidnik?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-3 (8%). Double chance for Górnik Łęczna or draw is 23%.